The death penalty and statistics

I was listening to an interesting radio broadcast on NPR on the death penalty and statistics. So, I thought that I would check some of what they say with official figures. Since 1973, 167 people on death row were released after being exonerated of all charges. Please note that these are not releases on issues of technicalities, these are full exonerations. As a percentage of death sentences, this means that a minimum of 1.6% of people sentenced to death in the USA are innocent. We could simply round that percentage off to 2%

But, that 2% is only the rate of those who were able to prove their innocence after being sentenced to capital punishment. Not all defendants are able to have their case reheard. In various cases, there is no DNA evidence to show who really committed the crime. In other cases, there are either competing witnesses or no witnesses with a case being built on circumstantial evidence. So, if the proven rate of false convictions is around 2%, has anyone estimated the possible rate of false convictions? Visit Denver theft lawyers website to easily get in contact with them.

Actually, yes. Back in 2014, a research study was published, “Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death.” The study points out that not all defendants who are removed from death row are necessarily exonerated. There are multiple recorded cases in which a defendant is resentenced from capital punishment to life imprisonment. This is an unfortunate alternative in that it avoids passing a full judgment on the original trial. Below is a summary quote of the conclusion of the study. Again, remember that the actual exoneration rate is 2%.

The rate of erroneous conviction of innocent criminal defendants is often described as not merely unknown but unknowable. We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States.

“Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014

So, this means that it is proven that 1 out of 50 people sentenced to death are innocent. It is estimated that 1 out of 25 people sentenced to death is the real innocence rate. It is an inescapable conclusion that we have executed innocent people. Since 1976, we have averaged 43 executions a year, although that number has varied highly from year to year. But, given the proven innocence statistics, it means that we have probably executed one innocent person per year, on average. If the study is correct, then we have executed two innocent people per year, on average since 1976. It should be noted that from 2000 to 2016, capital punishment sentences were drastically decreasing. Remember, these are statistics from the modern era and do not speak to how many innocents may have been regularly executed in the 19th century, for instance.

In doing my research, I also found out that other countries, such as England, Ireland, Australia, etc., had set up commissions to formally and officially study the probable rates of innocence in their judicial system. Those studies were then used to debate changing the laws so as to try to ensure that the rate of innocence conviction was either eliminated or kept to a negligible rate. Those studies did result in both prosecutorial and sentencing reforms that have made those countries more likely to be truly applying justice.

Our response in the USA has been almost the opposite. Most of the innocence work has been done by private parties, and few, if any, prosecutorial and sentencing reforms have been applied by legislatures. What few reforms have been put in place, have been put in place mainly by the judicial system. As a result, supposedly liberal judges have become punching bags for those who assume that our system of justice is somehow immune from either corruption or from simple mistakes. This has meant that we have been loath to recognize what is well-documented, which is that 1 out of every 50 to 1 out of every 25 people convicted of a capital crime is actually completely innocent.

There is much more that I could say, but I leave you with one thought. If the false conviction rate is 2-4% in capital cases, what is the false conviction rate in non-capital cases? Capital cases are the ones most heavily scrutinized because they lead to loss of life. But, how about cases such as simple robbery or simple theft? What about cases where the loss of liberty is limited, such as many misdemeanors and lesser felony cases? I suspect that the false conviction rate in those types of cases is higher simply because the scrutiny is lower. I strongly suspect that our false conviction rate in that type of case is significantly higher than in capital punishment cases.

This should concern us as both Christians and American citizens. We tend to cry “law and order” in the USA. However, as shown by the statistics above, something has happened that has separated law and order from justice. Perhaps instead of law and order, we should be crying “justice.” Perhaps, given the statistics, we should also by crying out for prosecutorial and sentencing reform rather than for new and tougher criminal laws.

By the way, why do I say prosecutorial reform? Because in almost every one of the exonerations since 1976, some degree of prosecutorial and/or law enforcement misconduct was found to be at the root of the false conviction. In a few rare cases, it was an inept public defender. Prosecutors and law enforcement are given immunity for actions in the performance of their duty. Most immunity grants have meant, and still mean, that even if misconduct or negligence is later shown, the prosecutor and/or LEO is still untouchable. Would it surprise you to find out that in several of the cases of exoneration, it was shown that the prosecution and/or LEOs deliberately withheld or falsified evidence, yet they were never held accountable? That’s right, they were immune.

It may surprise you to find out that I consider myself pro-LEO. But pro-LEO does not mean pro-misconduct or pro-negligence. Ultimately, being pro-truth, pro-justice, and pro-mercy should be our highest values as Americans.