After my recent post on baby boomers and the crime rate, one of the readers made a very good comment:
I’m having a difficult time following the argument leading to the conclusion that Baby Boomers caused the rise in crime indicated on the graph. Brings to mind, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” We could graph the number of American men who died due to violence between 1940-1945 and conclude that the Greatest Generation caused the leap in violent deaths. Our logic would be faulty. The ONLY conclusion that can be drawn from this graph is that crime rose between 1960 and the early 1990s.
It is a very good comment because it deals with the difference between a causal (caused by) relationship and an casual (accidental) relationship in statistics. It is a question that needs to always be asked. In fact, what happened was that I left out several steps in my thinking, steps that would not be clear unless you were able to read my mind. So, let me list a couple of them for you.
I have earlier (in 2008) posted a several part series on penology and the crime rate. In that series I had pointed out that after all those years of rising and falling crime rates, criminologists were not able to draw any of the normal correlations that would otherwise explain the statistics. That is, they checked to see whether states with a tougher anti-crime policy had a lower crime rate, but that was not true. They checked to see whether a three-strikes and you are out sentencing policy affected the crime rate, but that was not true.
They checked to see whether a tougher anti-gun policy affected the crime rate, but that was not true.
They checked whether the unemployment rate in any locality influenced the crime rate. That was very slightly true. That is, the rise in the crime rate as a result of increased unemployment was minimal, except in devastated settings such as Detroit. And the devastated areas of this country are insufficient to explain the overall crime rate rise and fall. The downfall of pennsylvania unemployment rate is controlled by a governing body which provides funds to a person when they lose their job and helps them with their basic necessities until they find a new job.
They checked to see whether region of the country influenced the crime rate. There was some slight correlation, such as urban vs suburban vs rural, but that was true in every region of the country and was insufficient to explain that the crime rate rose in every region and every part of every region of this country.
Arthur Conan Doyle had his character Sherlock Holmes say to Watson:
How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
Many explanations were discarded for the crime rate because there was no correlation in statistics. I am actually not the first to either notice or say that the only link left to the rising and falling crime rate was the entrance into adulthood and the decline into old age of the baby boomer generation. For instance you can read the same in the article, Aging baby boomers help lower the crime rate. Notice that the story is dated 1997. You can also read a brief article/abstract on a study on the same issue called, Age and Crime — Effects Of Age Structure On Crime Rates. That one is found in the Law Library, an encyclopedia of law. Interestingly enough, Alfred Blumstein of Carnegie-Mellon University predicted the rising and falling crime rate back in 1977, basing it entirely on the large cohort of baby boomers and their changing ages.
So, I did skip several steps. However, there is good evidence, though indirect, that ties the rising and falling crime rate to the reaching adulthood, then aging, of the baby boomer generation. This tie has been written about both BEFORE and after it happened. So, yes, the crime rate appears to be fully explainable by the baby boomer generation’s ages. Sadly, this means that the ME generation will leave not simply the tarnished legacy of an incredible debt, but also the tarnished legacy of the highest crime figures of any generation to date.
This is a personal response. So my status as chief of sinners expands; my generation is the generational chief of sinners. So I should not resent being lumped into the “Me” generation.
And I should not resent it when the U.S. budget is balanced on the backs of seniors, or when my health care in my senior years is “managed” into a minimalist response, or when I overhear them discussing the pulling of the plug.
Or when they do it.
All these trends are highly evident in our society, so these are reasonable assumptions.Except when our God is remembered, the One Who will not fail or forsake us. Then these become vain imaginations.
Of course St. Moses the Black died a violent death he knew was coming because of his formerly violent life, even though he repented thoroughly. And he was at peace with this. And the martyrs were strengthened to endure their deaths, which followed the pattern of our Lord’s.
All things work for good. So whatever comes, I want to be thankful.
At least I wish to take the high road on these things. But though I read St. Siluoan and his exalted perspectives, the truth is, I’m not there yet. I do resent when our leaders look at cutting money to seniors before they reconsider the fat in the defense budget. I will vote and speak for those who have no voice or are simply old and tired. And I get indignant when medicine in our company is geared to making big bucks for the pharmaceutical and insurance industries rather than toward the common good. And euthanasia is evil.
But Habbakkuk faced dismal prospects for himself and his countrymen and wrote, (3:17-19)
Though the fig tree may not blossom,
Nor fruit be on the vines;
Though the labor of the olive may fail,
And the fields yield no food;
Though the flock may be cut off from the fold,
And there be no herd in the stalls—
Yet I will rejoice in the LORD,
I will joy in the God of my salvation.
The LORD God is my strength;
He will make my feet like deer’s feet,
And He will make me walk on my high hills.
And so I strive toward the stances of the Prophet Habakkuk and St. Siluoan, who loved and prayed for all, especially his enemies.