Earthquake in Papua New Guinea

A 6.3 earthquake struck Papua New Guinea yesterday morning. This continues the string of earthquakes that have been hitting populated areas on a regular basis for the past several months. The volcano in Iceland continues to spew ash and lava, grounding nearly 20,000 flights in Europe and making it necessary for the President to cancel his flight to Poland for the funeral of the President of Poland. It appears that the volcano right next to the spewing one may cut loose as well. Actually, the Papua New Guinea earthquake may be a better way to settle the tectonic plate pressure than a volcanic eruption. Why do I say that? Well, several volcanoes in the New Guinea area are on the “keep watch” list because they may want to erupt.

Various blogs and news services run by believers in a dispensationalist interpretation of the Book of Revelation are having a field day. The Gospel according to Saint Matthew is being extensively quoted at this time. There are some who are claiming that the “end-time clock” has moved closer to the midnight hour and the dawning of the Day of the Lord. Even before the Icelandic eruption, the United States Geological Survey felt constrained to issue the following statement:

Scientists say 2010 is not showing signs of unusually high earthquake activity. Since 1900, an average of 16 magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes — the size that seismologists define as major — have occurred worldwide each year. Some years have had as few as 6, as in 1986 and 1989, while 1943 had 32, with considerable variability from year to year.

With six major earthquakes striking in the first four months of this year, 2010 is well within the normal range. Furthermore, from April 15, 2009, to April 14, 2010, there have been 18 major earthquakes, a number also well within the expected variation.

With all this end-times fervor growing, what should an Orthodox believer say to those who say to him/her that this is proof that the end-times is getting closer. Well, the classic answer was given by Saint Andrew of Caesarea around the year 1000, when he was asked a similar question. At that point he wrote a commentary on the Book of the Revelation that has yet to be fully published in English.

What he said was that we need to look at what is now Revelation, chapter 6, the sixth seal. His comment was that everything before the sixth seal can be found in the history of humanity up to that point. Sometimes there is more of it and sometimes there is less of it. But, everything before the sixth seal is such as is a common part of human history and that therefore those type of events should not be taken as indicative of the imminence of the Day of the Lord, even if there is an increase in them. For, he said, in human history one can often see an increase in the number of events pictured in the first five seals and a decrease in the number of events pictured in the first five seals. Therefore, these events, by themselves, are not sufficient to indicate the imminence of the Day of the Lord.

It is only with the sixth seal that something happens that has yet to happen. It is only when we see the events of the sixth seal that we can say, “. . . for the great day of their wrath has come, and who can stand?” So, what does the sixth seal say?

I looked when He opened the sixth seal, and behold, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became like blood. And the stars of heaven fell to the earth, as a fig tree drops its late figs when it is shaken by a mighty wind. Then the sky receded as a scroll when it is rolled up, and every mountain and island was moved out of its place.

It is only when we see a massive ecological disaster at this level of worldwide destruction that we may begin to suspect that the sixth seal has been opened and that the Day of the Lord is upon us. In passing for some of you volcanologists, the description above certainly sounds like the description of the VEI 8 level volcano eruption, popularly called a super-volcano. The last VEI 8 eruption was around 26,000 years ago, with the previous one being about 74,000 years ago.

To give you a comparison, the Krakatoa explosion of the late 1800’s was only a VEI 6 explosion. The Mount Tambora eruption of 1815 was a VEI 7 explosion, which led to the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816. Let me give you a couple of facts from that year.

In the spring and summer of 1816, a persistent dry fog was observed in the northeastern United States. The fog reddened and dimmed the sunlight, such that sunspots were visible to the naked eye.

In May 1816, however, frost killed off most of the crops that had been planted, and on 4 June 1816, frosts were reported in Connecticut, and by the following day, most of New England was gripped by the cold front. On 6 June 1816, snow fell in Albany, New York, and Dennysville, Maine. Nearly a foot (30 cm) of snow was observed in Quebec City in early June, with consequent additional loss of crops—most summer-growing plants have cell walls which rupture even in a mild frost. The result was regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality—in short, famine. In July and August, lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania. Rapid, dramatic temperature swings were common, with temperatures sometimes reverting from normal or above-normal summer temperatures as high as 35 °C (95 °F) to near-freezing within hours.

In the ensuing bitter winter of 1817, when the thermometer dropped to -32 °C (-26°F), the waters of New York’s Upper Bay froze deeply enough for horse-drawn sleighs to be driven across Buttermilk Channel from Brooklyn to Governors Island.

That was only a VEI 7 eruption from a single volcano. Can you imagine what a VEI 8 explosion would be like, or even two in a row? And, can you see, given the history of Mount Tambora and of Krakatoa why Saint Andrew of Caesarea would say that we need to wait and not call the end-times too early?