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| Michael Specter | ||||
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In the USA we have been going through many years of illogical thinking that is completely unrelated to political leanings. The common denominator is not politics, or education, or socio-economic level, or region of the country. If anything, the common denominator is a type of fear that relies on everyone else doing what is right in order for you to not be able to do so. It sometimes manifests as the type of fear that makes one unable to correctly estimate the risks in one’s actions. The clip above from The Daily Show© reviews a book called Denialism that speaks to the situation of which I am speaking.
I am not sure that I would call it denialism, but then I am not an author who is nationally featured. 
What are some examples of what the author is talking about? Well, he brings up the example of the polio vaccine. There are parents now who are regularly refusing vaccines for their children because the disease is no longer found in the USA. But, as the author points out, they are gambling with their child’s health. They are trusting that enough other children are vaccinated in the USA that an epidemic will not get started. They are trusting that their child will not come in contact with a person who is a carrier of the disease.
Of course, these parents would never phrase it that way. They would talk about the extremely small percentage of children who have an adverse effect to the vaccine. They would talk about the almost infinitesimal danger that one of their children will die as a result of the vaccine. They would talk about the latest unproven (and now disproven) rumor that the vaccines will cause autism. But, here is the bottom line. They are taking a gamble. As I commented before, the gamble is that the dangers of their child getting the disease is less than the dangers of their child having a side-effect reaction.
And, unfortunately, the gamble is not working. In a news release dated 3 December 2009, the World Health Organization said that measles deaths have dropped by 78% between 2000 and 2008. Wait, you mean that measles can kill a child???!!! Yes, measles can be a killer. But, in 2008, there were a record number of measles cases in England and Wales. In 2008, measles cases nearly doubled in the USA. In early 2009 there were measles outbreaks in both Maryland and Pennsylvania. These measles outbreaks are mostly among children whose parents refused to have them vaccinated. Only 17% of the measles cases in the USA come from other countries, the lowest rate since 1996. That means that over 80% of the cases are strictly ours, strictly cases due to parents refusing to vaccinate their children, parents who were willing to take a gamble on their child’s life versus the odds that their particular child might catch measles. And, if this keeps up, someday that gamble will fail, that gamble will mean that deaths in the USA due to measles will begin to rise again.
But, measles is not the only childhood disease that can be deadly. Polio rates are beginning to rise again. The many vaccinations that a baby receives are because of the many diseases which exist. National health on communicable diseases depends on national compliance with vaccination standards. It means accepting a number of negative reactions and even deaths from the vaccine in order to prevent an even higher number of negative reactions and vastly increased deaths from the diseases we are preventing. But, there are many selfish parents today. They say that “my” child should not be subject to the dangers of a vaccination. Enough other children have been subjected to the vaccination that “my” child can get away with avoiding the dangers.
And, they often get away with it because they are right. There are enough responsible parents, parents who care about society, that their individual selfishness has previously gone unnoticed. But, measles cases are rising. Polio cases are rising. The death rate for childhood diseases is about to begin rising. The clock is ticking. And, when their child is lying in the casket, whom will those parents blame? And, when an epidemic of a fully preventable disease begins to sweep through the USA, whom will those parents blame? Frankly, I suspect that whether Republican or Democrat they will begin to blame the government for not forcing them to do by law what they should have done by common sense.
So, yes, I am in favor of mandatory immunization laws with no exception for religious belief. This is one of the rare instances in which the national interest trumps individual rights.
The clock is ticking. And, when their child is lying in the casket, whom will those parents blame? And, when an epidemic of a fully preventable disease begins to sweep through the USA, whom will those parents blame?
“BLAME CANADA!
BLAME CANADA!
BEFORE ANYONE CAN THINK OF BLAMING US!!!”
— Kyle’s Mom & Other Concerned Parents (TM), South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut
Headless Unicorn Guy, that quote from South Park pretty much sums it up.
Debunked how, precisely? By a court? Since when do we accept court rulings on science as authoritative? Do judges really have special knowledge which allows them to transcend their field of expertise and become scientists?
Be careful of your triumphalism (not to mention your condescending dismissiveness). Ad hominem attacks and sweeping generalizations not only make for self-stultifying arguments, but they are offensive, as well.
Well, who is talking about judges? What judges? Where? You might wish to look at a post I have written for tomorrow, and written before your comment. However, there are no sweeping generalizations. I was careful to quote epidemiological statistics. Moreover, the rate of those diseases is rising, unless you are going to claim that the statistics are deliberate constructions. And, what triumphalism? I do believe you are reading into my post, which is a warning about coming possible epidemics as a result of the irresponsibility of those parents who refuse to vaccinate.
Already there has been a well-documented mumps outbreak the in Mid-West. In 2006 there was an outbreak of 6584 mumps cases in that region. And, uhm, guess what? In early 2009, we had the first polio death in the USA since 1979, and it was NOT an immigrant, but a natural-born USA citizen.
So, speaking of ad-hominem arguments, I suggest you quote reliable statistics rather than simply scattering accusations of triumphalism and condescension. They do not become you. But read tomorrow’s post.
In passing, I am not just a priest. I have a post-baccalaureate science specialty. I am published in the field of science in a reputable reliable journal, the Journal of the American Association of Blood Banks. And, I am a very part-time professor at a local Florida college in the area of advanced immunohematology. So, yes, I am quite capable of reviewing the current medical literature and evaluating the thrust of the articles in a reliable, logical, and both scientific and theological way.
You write:
“If anything, the common denominator is a type of fear that relies on everyone else doing what is right in order for you to not be able to do so. It sometimes manifests as the type of fear that makes one unable to correctly estimate the risks in one’s actions.”
This has nothing to do with why parents chose not to subject their children to an inadequately tested medical procedure whose safety is far from certain.
Scott P: True Believer.
You write:
“In early 2009 there were measles outbreaks in both Maryland and Pennsylvania. These measles outbreaks are mostly among children whose parents refused to have them vaccinated. Only 17% of the measles cases in the USA come from other countries, the lowest rate since 1996. That means that over 80% of the cases are strictly ours, strictly cases due to parents refusing to vaccinate their children, parents who were willing to take a gamble on their child’s life versus the odds that their particular child might catch measles. And, if this keeps up, someday that gamble will fail, that gamble will mean that deaths in the USA due to measles will begin to rise again.”
If you would care to substantiate the claim that “most” of the outbreaks are among the unvaccinated, I would retract some of what I wrote. I think the truth is that “most” of the cases are among the vaccinated. Because the vaccine is not efficacious.
Funny you should ask. From the Centers for Disease Control for 2008 comes the following information from the January – July 2008 timeframe.
This report updates an earlier report on measles in the United States during 2008 and summarizes two recent U.S outbreaks among unvaccinated school-aged children. Among those measles cases reported during the first 7 months of 2008, 76% were in persons aged <20 years, and 91% were in persons who were unvaccinated or of unknown vaccination status.
Finally, you wrote:
“They would talk about the latest unproven (and now disproven) rumor that the vaccines will cause autism. ”
How is this now fact? Where has it been disproven?
Scott P: Illustrating what Fr Orthocuban has posted.
Below is a listing of some of two of the published studies disproving an association between thimerosal and autism.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/357/13/1281
http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/reprint/118/1/e139.pdf
There are several more. Mind you, there are several studies that appear to show a connection and hearings have been held in Congress. Most of the studies that appear to show the connection are from the 1990’s while the studies that further probed the subject and showed the disconnect are from later as the subject heated up. There was a proposed protocol for resolution, a study that would help to resolve any final remaining discrepancies. Interestingly enough, the group(s) that most support the association (none of the groups belong to any of the established associations) have refused to come up with any proposed protocol that could help resolve what final issues remain.
You wrote:
“And, uhm, guess what? In early 2009, we had the first polio death in the USA since 1979, and it was NOT an immigrant, but a natural-born USA citizen.”
Who had probably been vaccinated.
The news release from the Minnesota Department of Health on that case was handed out on 14 April 2009. In that case, they were not able to track down whether the adult had ever been vaccinated as a child or not. However, in that same state, which has a few communities with high levels of non-immunization, there was a child who died from polio in 2005. In that case they were able to conclusively show that the child had never been vaccinated. I suspect that any other children that these parents have are now fully vaccinated.
I have lived in countries where children die of preventable illnesses. I had a co-worker who got polio because when the vaccine first came out, his parents were afraid of it. The legacy of his parent’s fear is their child’s permanent crippling. As a military dependent, I was vaccinated as a child for everything from typhoid to yellow fever to cholera to you name it. As an immuno-compromised adult with a chronic disease who works in a health care setting, I will take whatever vaccine is available. Is there a risk? Probably a very small one statistically. Is there an almost certainty of my coming down with whatever disease is out there if I am exposed without whatever protection I can get from available vaccines? Absolutely! It is a matter of the risk/benefit ratio. I chose the smallest risk for the greatest benefit.
Incidently, recent studies on autism show a possible link to the ages of parents.
Alix
You left out one reason for the resurgence of polio: Muslim imams. Their resistance to vaccination in Nigeria (“It’s a plot to sterilize Muslims”) almost singlehandedly frustrated the attempt to wipe out polio in the wild, and facilitated an epidemic via the Hajj. Imams in the Af-Pak border regions have spewed this same bilge.
I don’t know what Scott P means by “inadequately tested medical procedure”, when the polio vaccine has been out for over 50 years, and the MMR for 40. I would say that modern folk are: a) looking for a risk-free society; b) abysmally ignorant of statistics in the real world. My patients with >30% risk of cardiac events will sometimes refuse a statin drug due to risks on the order of 1 in a million.
Yes, you are quite correct. Some of that same type of reasoning was found in South America when the rumor was spread that North Americans were adopting children in order to harvest their organs. The rumor was quite false, but it did lead to a severe tightening of adoption laws and, in Guatemala, it even led to the severe beating of two innocent American women tourists who were said to be walking through a village in order to spy out possible victims.
Some of that same type of reasoning was found in South America when the rumor was spread that North Americans were adopting children in order to harvest their organs.
I understand that rumor began as a KGB disinformation project in the late Cold War (to discredit and sow distrust of Norteamericanos) and developed a life of its own after the Second Russian Revolution disbanded that project. Kicker is, there’s another story going round about it that Chinese Intelligence is now using that same story for the same reason. Real kicker when you realize that China routinely vivisects “Politicals” for saleable transplant parts.
Let me do an add-on as I re-read your comment. Yes, way too many folk are incapable of doing a good risk analysis based on statistics. But, where else do they learn (outside of school) but from the media, who take an statistically minor risk and blow it up into a major risk. They always claim that you should know the dangers, but seldom do they publish side by side with their story, the dangers of getting the preventable disease or graphic description of what a person with the disease actually suffers. So the viewer is often left with the idea that this nearly non-existent disease is of almost no danger while the side effect is a bigger danger. The logical failure is that if enough people stop vaccinating, then the dangers of the disease will quickly outweigh the dangers of the possible side effects.
Then you throw into the mix the “entertainment” talk show host, such as Gary Null, who can get away with his claims because he is technically not giving medical advice. Add to that a pinch of lawyers who put advertisements on the TV which list symptoms and say that if you have them and are taking some drug then the symptom must come from the drug and you are a victim, and we begin to create a climate of fear that far outweighs the actual risks of the vaccination.
But, that does not fully exonerate the parents who refuse to vaccinate. Too many of them are well aware of the danger of the disease, but are playing the roulette game that enough other parents will be responsible that they will not need to worry about the disease. Their assumption is that the disease will not return to the USA so that their child does not need to be vaccinated. But, there is already evidence building that this is a bad bad stance.
Well, this has gotten interesting, and may I say that the Headless Unicorn offers some much-needed comic relief.
Fr. Ernesto, do you know about Gary Null? Natural foods advocate with a radio show, “Natural Living with Gary Null” available on alternative stations. Some good advice and interviews, but I think much of people’s bias against vaccinations comes out of his mouth. His tirades against fluoridation of water may be relatively harmless (just don’t get my dentist started on that) but his campaign against vaccinations, for all the reasons you cited, gets dangerous; and it gets worse still.
Gary also claims that AIDS is not spread by sexual contact and is not caused by a virus, HIV or otherwise, but by poverty and malnurtrition. AIDS—even “full-blown AIDS”—can be cured, says Gary, by proper nutrition and by natural remedies that amount to about $21 per month.
I expect you can find such remedies on his website, http://www.garynull.com
Beware of this guy. He has a very loyal following and can out-argue you or most anybody else. His credentials however are dubious. No medical degree, and although his website says he “holds a Ph.D. in human nutrition and public health science” it fails to say from which institution.
I had not heard about Gary Null. The problem is twofold, on the one hand, most people do not know how to evaluate the results of scientific studies nor how to evaluate medical claims. On the other hand, precisely because there have been (and are) scandals in science, those scandals become the fodder to “see” a vast conspiracy to prevent people from receiving the correct medical facts about [name your disease].
But, as with most conspiracies, the number of people necessarily involved in order to make those conspiracies function often goes into incredibly high numbers. For instance, in order for the flouridation claims to be anywhere near true, it means that scientists from Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, and Independent backgrounds would have to unite and agree to conspire to fool the American public. It means that state health departments–and all those who work within and for them–in every state, whether Red or Blue, would have to be part of the conspiracy. And, finally, it means that both public and private university science departments in the hundreds from around the country would have to all be part of the conspiracy.
And, frankly, why bother to go to all that trouble over flouridation? What benefit would be so great as to make the conspiracy worthwhile?
“If your Conspiracy Theory doesn’t fit the facts, Invent A Bigger Conspiracy.”
— Kooks Magazine
“THE DWARFS ARE FOR THE DWARFS! WE WON’T BE TAKEN IN!”
— C.S.Lewis Chronicles of Narnia: The Last Battle
Ever wonder why Conspiracy Theorists are always so isolated and bitter? They’re bitter because they’re the only one in the entire world who Isn’t Part of The Conspiracy!
op cit “Talking John Birch Society Blues” by Bob Dylan.